BVs MkII

Well that stirred the pot a bit. The key point I took out of yesterdays comments were that most people ignored what was written about the development, jumped directly to list and made assumption from there.

Yesterday list was based on very limited data. Only 10 races and only three of those from the North Island. If you return, have a look at the summary table just above the ranking list which shows which races and how many data points there were. So here we are, 24 hours and about 13 races later.

Table 1: Summary of the races used in this version of the list. Total Entrants, by gender and then the proportion of people in that race who go and run some other race on the list. The higher that number the better and good news for the Goat, it jumps up quite a bit.

Race Total F M Multi
3PEAKS 91 22 69 23%
ABELTASMAN 268 109 159 32%
AVALANCHEPEAK 103 27 76 32%
BIGO 89 39 50 35%
CAPTAINCOOK 151 79 72 31%
CROESUS 83 32 51 42%
GOAT2011 568 166 402 24%
HOLDSWORTH 80 15 65 40%
KAURI 104 32 72 45%
KEPLER2011 456 127 329 25%
KIDNAPPERS 152 45 107 26%
LOOPTHELAKE 305 155 150 19%
MOONLIGHT 63 16 47 30%
NUGGET 78 26 52 28%
ROUTEBURN 305 131 174 29%
T42 95 30 65 65%
TARARUA2011 54 12 42 46%
TARAWERA100 102 19 83 33%
TARAWERA60 93 35 58 30%
THEDUAL 71 12 59 30%
TOIS 248 122 126 17%
TRIPLEPEAKS 73 18 55 30%
TUSSOCK 362 140 222 31%
TOTALS 3994 1409 2585 32%

Table 2: Number of people who ran 1, 2 etc races. 5 was the most.

Events
1 2 3 4 5
2842 774 267 76 35

Table 3: split between North and South island numbers

NORTH SOUTH
2169 1825

A couple of more points are worth mentioning, the list excludes all those with only ONE result from the above races. They do not fit well, the models are either heavily biased towards them or against them. Unless I can figure that out, they are going to stay out. So no Braden Currie, Phil Costley, Victoria Beck or James Coubrough at this stage.

Motatapu is also missing for a couple of reasons. The results are not particularly easy to handle, but more significantly in my mind is that the race organisers threatened two athletes with defamation for comments they made about the race. Comments from other winners also suggest that the organisers really don;t care about the athletes at all and it’s just a great big money scheme. Now I probably have to swallow that and include the results as they will have a significant bearing on the outcome as Vajin Armstrong will be credited with another win and Victoria Beck will come onto the list, almost certainly at the top with two wins from two races. She (like Braden Currie) will come onto the list after next years Moonlight Marathon anyway.

The List

Rank Name Races Name Races
1 CHRISMORRISSEY 4 GRETAKNARSTON 2
2 VAJINARMSTRONG 3 LIZZIEWESLEYSMITH 2
3 GLENNHUGHES 3 MARJOLEINROS 2
4 SAMMANSON 4 GEMMACARTWRIGHT 2
5 MARTINLUKES 3 LESLEYTURNERHALL 3
6 MARTINCOX 2 JACQUIGEE 3
7 GRAEMETAYLOR 2 KATRINWALBERT 2
8 DANIELCLENDON 2 KIRSTENMILNE 2
9 SHAYWILLIAMSON 2 WHITNEYDAGG 3
10 THOMASREYNOLDS 2 FLEURPAWSEY 2
11 GRANTGUISE 3 EMILYSOLSBERG 2
12 GENEBEVERIDGE 3 DIANNEBULLED 4
13 JAMESKUEGLER 4 LOUISAANDREW 2
14 DALLASWICHMAN 3 EMMACRICHTON 2
15 MITCHMUNRO 3 BRIDGETLEONARD 3
16 NATHANBELL 3 JEANBEAUMONT 2
17 DAVIDKETTLES 2 MEGANKENNEDY 2
18 COLINEARWAKER 3 ROBINCAMERON-JONES 2
19 KERRYSUTER 3 TRICIASLOAN 2
20 KELVINMEADE 5 JOBANNISTER 2

This seems to fit better than yesterdays list. Grant drops behind Dan Clendon and Martin Cox who he never beat. Kugs gets credit for his hand holding Tarawera with Mike Le Roux. Kerry and Leslie T-H are penalized heavily for poor showings at Tussock Traverse. The womans list is essentially a huge surprise and I’d need to go and look at the individual results to see how and where they were collected.

How to make it better and more accurate. Feed it more data.

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5 responses

  1. I think from memory it is approx three digit sum to race the 15 k miners trail at the Motatapu so you’re not wrong there Flyingkiwi about the money making. Great research!

  2. I like your new list. SO now all I need to do is get faster than Chris!

  3. Chris Morrissey | Reply

    Can I win a theoretical car for winning a theoretical trail series please?

    1. As long as you’re on top you can drive the car.

    2. Chris Morrissey | Reply

      A hypothetical trail series and a hypothetical car makes more sense. It’s hard being a not so smart smart ass

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