Well that stirred the pot a bit. The key point I took out of yesterdays comments were that most people ignored what was written about the development, jumped directly to list and made assumption from there.
Yesterday list was based on very limited data. Only 10 races and only three of those from the North Island. If you return, have a look at the summary table just above the ranking list which shows which races and how many data points there were. So here we are, 24 hours and about 13 races later.
Table 1: Summary of the races used in this version of the list. Total Entrants, by gender and then the proportion of people in that race who go and run some other race on the list. The higher that number the better and good news for the Goat, it jumps up quite a bit.
Table 2: Number of people who ran 1, 2 etc races. 5 was the most.
Table 3: split between North and South island numbers
A couple of more points are worth mentioning, the list excludes all those with only ONE result from the above races. They do not fit well, the models are either heavily biased towards them or against them. Unless I can figure that out, they are going to stay out. So no Braden Currie, Phil Costley, Victoria Beck or James Coubrough at this stage.
Motatapu is also missing for a couple of reasons. The results are not particularly easy to handle, but more significantly in my mind is that the race organisers threatened two athletes with defamation for comments they made about the race. Comments from other winners also suggest that the organisers really don;t care about the athletes at all and it’s just a great big money scheme. Now I probably have to swallow that and include the results as they will have a significant bearing on the outcome as Vajin Armstrong will be credited with another win and Victoria Beck will come onto the list, almost certainly at the top with two wins from two races. She (like Braden Currie) will come onto the list after next years Moonlight Marathon anyway.
This seems to fit better than yesterdays list. Grant drops behind Dan Clendon and Martin Cox who he never beat. Kugs gets credit for his hand holding Tarawera with Mike Le Roux. Kerry and Leslie T-H are penalized heavily for poor showings at Tussock Traverse. The womans list is essentially a huge surprise and I’d need to go and look at the individual results to see how and where they were collected.
How to make it better and more accurate. Feed it more data.